The foreign-born population of England and Wales is expected to exceed one in seven for the first time, a Telegraph analysis of official statistics suggested.
Ahead of Wednesday’s release of the 2021 census for England and Wales, the analysis showed that by mid-2021 around 8.9 million people living in England and Wales were born outside the UK.
This equates to approximately 15.2% of the total population. In 2011, that figure was just 7.5 million, or 13.4 percent of the population, according to data published over the past decade by the National Statistical Office (ONS).
The change would mean that there are now about 1.5 million more foreign-born residents than in 2011.
However, the increase would be a sharp decline in proportion to the changes observed in the 2000s.
Between 2001 and 2011, the foreign-born population increased by 62%, compared to an estimate of 20% in the past 10 years.
The Indians keep the first place
The census data is also expected to show that India is likely to hold its ground for having the largest number of unborn UK residents living in England and Wales, with the population increasing from 682,274 in 2011 to 852,000 in 2021. .
Foreign-born Polish residents may also remain in second place, despite the slowdown in migration following their country’s accession to the European Union in the 2000s.
However, Romanians could enter the top five foreign-born citizens for the first time. The ONS estimated there were 313,000 in England by mid-2021, up from just 78,192 in 2011. The increase is fueled by the removal of travel restrictions in 2013 to allow Romanians to work and live freely in the UK .
Romania would actually push Germany out of the top five, which held the position in the last census.
This would mean that the top five overseas-born populations for England in the 2021 census would be India, Poland, Pakistan, Republic of Ireland and Romania.
Decline in populations born in Ireland and Pakistan
Conversely, the number of British citizens born in Pakistan and the Republic of Ireland decreased over the same period between 2011 and 2021. Those from Pakistan were 476,684 in 2011, but this number dropped to 434,000 in 2021.
The number of people from the Republic of Ireland also decreased in the same decade, from 476,684 to 434,000.
Previous censuses have shown sharp increases for some of the major unborn migrant groups in the UK in particular decades. The Indian-born population nearly doubled between 1961 and 1971, and the Bangladesh-born population more than doubled between 1981 and 1991.
Furthermore, for each of the top five non-British birth countries in 2011 – India, Poland, Pakistan, the Republic of Ireland and Germany – migration to the UK in considerable numbers began at different times.
In 2011, 38% of Irish-born residents arrived before 1961, compared with 86% of Polish-born residents who arrived in 2004 or later.
It is likely that the community of Irish descent will see a continued decline in its importance in England and Wales.
In 2001 they represented the largest community born abroad with over 470,000 residents. The latest ONS estimates have suggested that this will decrease to around 344,000 as the original waves pass, surviving second- or third-generation immigrants.
The ONS said “the census provides the best picture of society at any given time every 10 years.” It will publish the results of the 2021 census at 9:30 am on Wednesday.