by Next year is expected to be one of the warmest years on record and even hotter than 2022, experts said.
Met Office scientists estimate that 2023 will be the tenth consecutive year in which global temperatures are at least 1C above pre-industrial levels, measured as a period from 1850 to 1900.
The current warmest year on record is 2016, a year that saw an “El Nino” climate pattern in the Pacific, pushing up sea temperatures and thus global temperatures in addition to global warming trends.
In recent years the Pacific has experienced the opposite, “La Nina” effect, which has kept temperatures lower.
However, this is bound to come to an end, says Dr. Nick Dunstone, who led the Met Office’s global temperature forecast for 2023.
“Global temperature over the past three years has been impacted by the effect of a prolonged La Nina – where sea surface temperatures are cooler than average in the tropical Pacific,” he said. “La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.
“For next year, our climate model points to the end of three consecutive years with La Nina State, with a return to relatively warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.
“This change is likely to cause the global temperature in 2023 to be warmer than in 2022.”
Forecasts from the Met Office project that average global temperatures in 2023 will be about 1.2C higher than they were before humans started driving climate change.
Last year, experts predicted that the 2022 global temperature would be between 0.97°C and 1.21°C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.09°C. Data for the year through October suggests the temperature is about 1.16°C above pre-industrial times.
Click to subscribe to ClimateCast wherever you get your podcasts
At the COP27 climate summit, held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November, countries have agreed to a historic dedicated fund to help vulnerable nations hit by climate disastersbut they have failed to step up efforts to tackle the harmful emissions that cause them.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said that while 2023 may not break 2016’s record, it will likely see further high temperatures.
“Without a precedent El Nino to raise global temperatures, 2023 may not be a record year, but with the underlying increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace, next year is likely to be another remarkable year in the series,” he said. she said.
Read more:
Why was it so cold, even though climate change is making the world hotter?
Properties in England at risk of flooding ‘to double over next 30 years’
How green is your city center? The best and worst in Britain rated
Dr Doug Smith, a climate forecaster for the National Weather Service, said some parts of the world have seen larger increases than others.
“The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1°C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation around the world,” he said.
“Some locations like the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”
