Met Office predicts 2023 will be warmer than 2022

Dried up lake bed

Next year will be hotter than this and one of the hottest on record, predicts the UK Met Office.

Forecasts suggest it will be the tenth consecutive year that global temperatures will be at least 1°C above average.

The Met Office has explained that a cooling effect known as La Niña will likely end after being in place for three years, part of a natural weather cycle.

He also noted the warming impact of human-induced climate change.

Scientific evidence shows that climate change is causing global temperatures to rise.

Governments around the world have pledged to cut emissions to keep temperature rise below 1.5°C to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

The world has already warmed by about 1.1°C since before the industrial revolution in 1750-1900, when humans began burning large quantities of fossil fuels, releasing warming gases into the atmosphere.

Temperatures in 2023 are projected to be 1.08°C to 1.32°C above the pre-industrial average.

The hottest year since records began in 1850 was in 2016, when meteorologists said the weather phenomenon known as El Niño raised global temperatures.

But the past three years have been impacted by another weather pattern called La Niña, as colder-than-average sea temperatures in the Pacific lowered global average temperatures.

That effect is expected to end, leading to warmer conditions in parts of the Pacific and leading to global temperatures being warmer than in 2022.

Unlike 2016, it is not expected to be a record year because El Niño will not raise global temperatures, explains Prof. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office.

But some parts of the world, like the Arctic, are warming at a faster than average rate.

“Next year the natural and temporary braking effect of La Niña will wear off. Full throttle accelerator pedal will reinvigorate the heat into the next year and will continue into the future, along with more severe wet, dry and hot extremes until when policies are not in place to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions,” Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, told BBC News.

Temperature records were broken in 2022 in many parts of the world, including the UK which recorded over 40C.

Devastating wildfires have swept heat-related parts of Europe and Australia, while Pakistan and India have seen temperatures reaching 51C in May.

In a series of studies, scientists concluded that these temperatures were made much more likely by climate change.

Rising temperatures are predicted to lead to devastating effects on humans and nature, including more droughts, desertification and heat-related diseases.

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