Photograph: Gary Calton / The Observer
Over the past month, Oscar-winning documentarian Michael Moore has emailed a daily “Mike’s Midterm Tsunami of Truth” missive about why he believes the Democrats will win big in next month’s US midterm election.
Moore calls it “a short, honest daily dose of truth – and the real optimism these truths offer us.” Also, right now, he goes against most political views, which sees a Republican victory on the cards.
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Predicting is a risky undertaking in any election cycle, but especially in this round with Democratic banks they can persuade Republican candidates to an unpopular Supreme Court decision to overturn federal guarantees on a woman’s right to abortion. Republicans, meanwhile, are focused on high inflation rates, economic woes, and fears over crime rates.
But political predictions have become Moore’s business since he rightly claimed Donald Trump would win national elections in 2016 against the common judgment of media firms and pollsters.
The thrust of his reasoning that this will be “Roe-vember” is amplified daily in emails. In the letter n. 21 (Don’t believe it) on Tuesday, he addressed the issue of political fatalism, specifically the media narrative that the ruling party necessarily hurts in midterm elections.
“The effect of this kind of reportage can be jarring: it can get into the average American’s head and confuse them,” Moore wrote. “You can start to feel deflated. You want to quit. You start to believe that we liberals I am a bunch of losers. And by thinking of ourselves this way, if you’re not careful, you start manifesting the old narrative into existence.
Reached by phone last week, Moore, 68, told the Guardian that his purpose, in fact, is to pierce the thought of the herd. He points to three recent examples where political norms have been misinterpreted.
“If I told you six months ago, ‘You know Kansas, right? It’s a huge pro-abortion state and this summer by a 60% margin they will keep abortion legal ‘you’d think I made a crazy statement, ”she says.
“If I told you at the same time that in the Congressional election in Alaska, a tough red state will not only not be won by a Democrat but by an Alaskan Democrat native, again you should be wondering if I was out of my mind.”
Finally, draw attention to Boise, Idaho, where a Republican candidate in office for the education council was approved by a far-right group, the Idaho Liberty Dogs, and lost to a progressive activist and 18-year-old high school student, Shiva Rajbhandari, who was also co-founder of the Boise chapter of climate group Extinction Rebellion.
In any case, Moore says, conventional thinking has been challenged.
“I have a higher education, so you probably, maybe, you shouldn’t hear from me, if in the past six months you had just been paying attention to Kansas, Idaho and Alaska you would have seen the red flags going up,” he says.
Moore likes to go in a different direction. He hails from Michigan with his strong ties to anti-government movements: Moore attended the same high school as Oklahoma bombing co-conspirator Terry Nichols.
Its reading is not oriented to the subway. Last year you wrote that Democrats have “insurrectionist envy” for the January 6 Capitol uprising. “Deep in your soul, as you watched what your eyes could not believe was happening, admit to me that in that frightening moment of January 6, 2021, you were – as I say it – jealous that it was the fascists who had risen, and we had not long ago, “he wrote.
Moore insists it’s not simply provocative in predicting a democratic landslide. “I’m sixty-eight and don’t have time to joke. I’m deadly serious. “
Moore predicts the election will see a record turnout of younger voters whose opinions are often lacking from pundits and commentators. “If you spend time with women, Dobbs’ decision has affected them personally and deeply. This was a religious edict based on conservative Catholic principles ”.
Moore’s political reflections are not limited to critical remarks from the right. The Democrats’ missteps are also evident. “The biggest obstacle to what I’m doing with the show is the Democratic Party,” he says. He followed the debates of the Democratic governor and the state elections on the US public broadcaster C-Span.
“It’s very disheartening and it would also make me question how we’re going to do it. The PD consultants are feeding such limping and weak lines. They don’t go for the jugular like a Republican would. He doesn’t inspire people at home ”.
“We are here on the precipice of a very important election and our biggest enemy could be the Democratic Party itself,” he adds.
But Moore has a further point, often made but not always heard, that the largest political group in the United States is not Republican or Democrat, but not voters. This non-voting party, which is perhaps the most potentially powerful but also the most inaccessible, is what Moore wants to achieve.
“The non-voting party does not see how politics benefits them, it is disgusted by the hypocrisy, many are disgusted by the crazy fighting that follows and by the madness that Trump has amplified,” Moore said, adding that when he turns on the TV in the evening he doesn’t necessarily go to a news program but looks for a comedy.
Moore’s call to arms is therefore to reach out to non-believers. “Anyone who cares and feels that our democracy may be hanging by a thread” now “has to do something these past three weeks.”
In his case, he says, it could be as simple as calling a cousin who does not vote to explain to him why, this time, it is important and that “after this he can go back to not voting”.
But what would he tell them?
“Aren’t you tired of doing nothing? All this stall bullshit. One way to clear this jam is to give the Democrats a chance to pass the legislation and let’s see how it works. Maybe it won’t work. Maybe they have bad ideas. But no idea and no decision paralyzes and damages the country. If we talk like this, we speak normally, it could be of great help. “